NZ exports tipped to outpace global trade growth
Current economic climates may be difficult, but New Zealand's trade is set to grow at an annualised rate of 5.88% over the next five years, says HSBC.
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Current economic climates may be difficult, but New Zealand’s trade is set to grow at an annualised rate of 5.88% over the next five years.
This figure outperforms world trade growth predicted to grow at the slow pace of 3.78% during the same period, according to the latest prediction from HSBC.
The second quarterly HSBC Global Connections predicts New Zealand’s trade growth to continue this positive trend long into the future.
Between the years of 2017-2021, growth is expected to rise to 7.28% compared with world growth at 6.23%, leading to a 134% increase in New Zealand Trade by 2026, when indexed against 2011.
HSBC Global Connections focuses on how the share of world trade will change for 37 countries over the next five, ten and fifteen years, combining lead indicators of world trade and macro-economic trend information.
Gary Cross, head of Global Trade and Receivables Finance at HSBC New Zealand said the country is in just the right industries and geography to take advantage of the accelerating trade trends.
“As millions more people within the emerging markets of the Southern Hemisphere move up to the middle class, demand for our agricultural, meat, wood and wine products can only increase,” says Mr Cross.
Australia is expected to stay New Zealand’s largest export partner, with trade forecast to grow by 7.46% annually over the next five years.
China, our second largest export partner, will grow more swiftly at 12.6% annually to 2016, while the United States, our third largest New Zealand export partner will grow by 2.12% annually over the next five years.
Demand within the agricultural sector will continue, with milk and cream, lamb and goat meat exports to Asia dominating all other exports. Milk and cream exports over the next five years to China are set to increase annually by 16.46%, to Singapore by 10.97% and to Malaysia by 9.08%.
Exports to Peru, Venezuela, Cambodia and Bangladesh are all forecast to grow substantially over the next five years, predominantly in milk and cream products.
New Zealand is also currently opening new international trade corridors in this sector with Africa.
NBR Staff
Wed, 22 Feb 2012
Wed, 22 Feb 2012
© All content copyright NBR. Do not reproduce in any form without permission, even if you have a paid subscription.
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NZ exports tipped to outpace global trade growth
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