NZ POLITICS DAILY: Labour won't support Goff, won't replace him

Chris Trotter is probably not the Labour Party’s favourite leftwing political commentator at the moment.

Today he went on TV3’s Firstline programme to explain Labour’s poor showing in the opinion polls. You can watch his video or read the brief article here: Labour can't win the election - Chris Trotter. It reports that "Trotter says Goff has been held back by his caucus, who've failed to show support for his plans but also refused to replace him."

To top off his severe public critique of Labour, Trotter then went and published a blog post this afternoon, Auslander!, which really eviscerates Labour by arguing that the ‘workers party’ has caused its own demise by taking for granted working class voters and treating them with managerial contempt.

By contrast, the secret of John Key and National’s success, according to Trotter, has been their message of solidarity for working voters who aspire for economic advancement.

By pushing this powerful message – coming from a leader that supposedly personifies such humble advancement – National has been able to ‘lure them across the great political divide’ to the extent that the party of the right has twice the public support of that of Labour – see TV3’s Latest 3 News poll shows Nats' support twice that of Labour and TVNZ’s More poll woe for Labour and Goff.

Additional evidence for Trotter’s theories can even be seen in Danya Levy’s Few see downside to state cuts.

Trotter’s critique of Labour is very thoughtful and poignant. And of course, Trotter isn’t exactly hostile to the Labour Party – in previous elections has been somewhat of a cheerleader of the party. But his patience for Labour has obviously disappeared. Recently the party has shown its dysfunctionality and lack of focus via its undisciplined and aggressive outbursts. The most recent are covered well in the Herald’s MP's silly gripe throwback to tribal politics, Grant Miller’s MP's beef with Mad Butcher and Kerre Woodham’s MP Fenton minces her words.

One of the difficulties for Labour – which Chris Trotter and the Mad Butcher personify – is that it lacks supportive public figures endorsing or championing it.

It suffers from a decline in the numbers of strong voices from within either civil society or the ‘commentariat’ that are willing to stand up, defend, or argue the party’s case. Many of the leading political commentators are far from enamored of Labour at the moment. So in Phil Goff’s office there must be a serious angst about the dominance in the media of partisan political commentators like David Farrar and Matthew Hooton.

So where are Labour’s sympathetic voices? John Pagani is about the only one, and even he seems to be viewed by many as a Phil Goff plant among the commentariat – he was working in Phil Goff office until relatively recently, but is now a full-time blogger and commentator putting forward the messages of Goff and co.

Effectively he’s probably just seen by many journalists as a spokesperson for Goff’s office who barely deviates from Goff’s lines of the moment. Mike Williams is another, but he, too, as Labour’s recent president isn’t taken seriously as any sort of critically-minded observer.

So it’s not surprising that Labour is getting frustrated and lashing out at everyone from academics through to the Mad Butcher. Surely it won’t be long before Chris Trotter, too, gets his comeuppance from Labour. Labour’s campaign strategist is probably planning his revenge against Trotter already and, sadly for Labour, this is the type of political factor that is coming to exemplify its 2011 campaign.

Meanwhile, there are significant issues of policy that Labour should be focused on instead. In particular, the economic downturn presents real opportunities for Labour to challenge the Government but it sometimes seems that Labour has given up already.

Bryce Edwards, NZPD Editor (bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz)

Today’s content:

Opinion polls

Duncan Garner (TV3): Latest 3 News poll shows Nats' support twice that of Labour

TVNZ: More poll woe for Labour and Goff

RNZ: Gap not too wide to close – Goff

TV3: Labour can't win the election - Chris Trotter

NZN: National's lead likely to disappear – English

Danya Levy (Stuff): Polls point to further woe for Labour

Laura Heathcote (Newstalk ZB): Labour takes hit in latest polls

Danya Levy (Stuff): Few see downside to state cuts

Michael Fox (Auckland Now): Key loses support in Auckland