NZ POLITICS DAILY: Labour's 'catastrophic' poll result

‘Catastrophic’ is the term that Matthew Hooton used to describe the Labour’s latest poll result in his weekly RNZ Nine-to-Noon politics slot (audio) – and he’s correct.

Regardless of whether Labour support has really dived to only 27% – as stated in the latest TVNZ opinion poll – and regardless of whether this slump is due to the party’s new capital gains tax policy, the problem for Labour is that it needed the first poll after the announcement to show some sort of improvement so that the party would have some forward momentum and people would herald the new tax policy as some sort of ‘gamechanger’ or success. It was possibly the most critical pre-election poll of the year for Labour.

Clearly it’s all about ‘the narrative’ – and the narrative that is now being embedded in voters minds – whether fairly or not – is that Labour’s election chances are sunk and its due to the public’s verdict on the capital gains tax proposal. So as Hooton also said this morning, ‘The perception becomes reality. The perception is going to be that Labour has lost support because of it’.

Danyl Mclauchlan at The Dim-Post has a plausible alternative theory about Labour’s sudden slump: ‘if you look closer at TVNZ’s poll numbers we see the real explanation for Labour’s enduring unpopularity. Voters really, really, really don’t like Phil Goff. He’s 45% behind Key in the preferred Prime Minister poll… the fundamental issue is still one of personalities, not policy. They desperately need to retire their entire front bench – with the arguable exceptions of Parker and Cunliffe – not change their policies’. And surely if the next opinion poll shows a similar or even lower level of support for Labour, then the question of Goff’s emergency replacement will arise once again in the caucus.

Such negative discussions about Labour show just how powerful opinion polls have become in our political discourse. Just one opinion poll quickly overshadows so much else – and over the last few days there’s been plenty of positive coverage of Labour and its new tax policy. For instance, on Saturday John Armstrong praised Labour’s political management and leadership in his column: Goff tax has caught National napping. Today Tapu Misa writes in the Herald about Goff's tax plan a start to a fairer society, and on Friday Chris Trotter praised Labour’s new tax policy as a major step forward in terms of values rather than technical details – see: The Price We Pay For Civilisation. Even the Dom Post’s editorial on the cgt bemoaned that John Key was ruling out Labour’s idea (No to capital gains tax shows lack of faith). Clearly Labour has done something strategically right in pushing forward in a new direction, but ultimately it will probably come to nothing if the party is only able to win over elite opinion and not the people.

Other worthwhile reads about Labour’s tax policy include Bernard Hickey’s Shock tactics fail to give us a hefty jolt, in which he laments Labour’s mild and watered-down approach to a capital gains tax, Brian Fallow’s Labour plan worries tax experts, Gordon Campbell’s Capital gains tax creates odd allies, and Nadine Chalmers-Ross’ Anything to gain?. Keith Ng’s blog posts at Public Address are also essential reading.

All of this quality debate shows that, as a friend recently said to me, although the CGT is not an inherently left-wing idea or right-wing idea, its a debate long overdue, and furthermore, it's vaguely encouraging that something as inherently dry as tax discussion has become the focus of political debate over the last couple of weeks, rather than the usual horse-race "leadership" obsession.

Bryce Edwards

NZPD Editor (bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz)

Today’s content

Labour’s latest poll ratings

TVNZ: Labour support plummets in latest poll

Claire Trevett and NZH Staff: Goff defends shock Labour poll result

RadioLIVE: Poll shows rejection of capital gains tax- academic

Kiwi Poll Guy: Polling Update, 17 July

David Farrar (Stuff): Labour’s sudden poll drop

The Dim-Post: TVNZ poll

Audio-visual coverage of Labour’s latest poll ratings

Labour’s tax policy