NZ POLITICS DAILY: National's two main coalition options weak, fragile

There’s a lot of fragility and uncertainty in the party system at the moment. Although National might be extremely popular at the moment (Greens on the up, National in front – poll), its main two coalition options are in an extremely fragile and weakened state, which could yet cause the downfall of the current Government at the coming general election. The Act and Maori parties are suddenly looking much more vulnerable, which could make a future National-led government much less likely.

Rather than regenerating under new leader, Don Brash, the Act Party appears to have just become more dysfunctional and divided. This is the message in two very good blog posts by Andrea Vance (It's not working, desperate Don) and Patrick Gower (The ACT Party look pretty much stuffed). Vance points out that Brash was expected to take the party back towards a focus on economics, ‘But instead of a definitive speech on economic policy, he chooses to hurl abuse about "Nazis" in local government, complain about the Wai 262 report (which he hasn't actually read) and celebrate David Garrett's exoneration. Of five press releases issued since June, four were about race and one was a cheap shot at Labour over broadband’. Similarly, Gower says Act is ‘pretty much’ stuffed, ‘and certainly desperate’:

It has gone nowhere. It is stagnant. It is treading water. It is looking like a couple of old blokes on political life support. The latest effort with the advertisement in the Herald shows Don Brash and his mate John Ansell acting as yesterday's men with no plan. It was a cut and paste job. So instead of being the adrenalin shot to bust them back into life the advert is more like slow euthanasia. Don Brash took the leadership on April 28. That was 11 weeks ago. Since then, Brash has been virtually anonymous. This is what has happened - or hasn't happened - since: No re-branding of the ACT party. No significant speech on economic issues by Dr Brash. In fact we are still due a centrepiece speech on where ACT is going full stop. No high-calibre new candidates have come forward. Heather Roy has done a runner. Sinking ship stuff?

It appears that Act really is now showing that it has run out of policy dynamism and is simply looking to score some easy popularity points, but can’t even do this. And there seems to be an unhealthy internal dynamic at play – especially according to academic political advertising specialist Claire Robinson, who asks whether ‘we are witnessing a party in its death throes?’ Robinson normally defends political advertisements from bad press, but in this case is extremely harsh about what Act’s latest debacle represents:

[It all points] to a very dysfunctional party in which an unelected advertising official has had a dangerously disproportionate, almost Rasputinesque, amount of influence on a party’s policy direction and presentation. It is seriously concerning that there should be so few checks on party communications in the ACT Party that an advertisement that so clearly reflected the individual political views of its creator, an unelected contractor, should be able to be published in New Zealand’s largest newspaper, and then followed up with a press statement written by the same person on behalf of the party’s leader. Only after this debacle is the contractor censured. This is what gives political advertising a bad name'.

To make matters worse for Key and National, the Maori Party has just decided to battle on to the death against the Mana Party (Maori Party: No deal with Mana). The Mana Party has played the situation well, coming out of the talks with the appearance of reasonableness, maturity and a willingness to compromise – which was probably always the main objective. The Maori Party in contrast appears foolish and sectarian, but worst of all, it’s chances of retaining the Tamaki Makaurau and Waiariki electorates has just dropped significantly – meaning that Key could be in real trouble if he needs to stitch together a coalition after 26 November. It seems that the major parties – Labour and National – continue to fail to protect and marshal their minor party coalition partners, which is one of their biggest failings under MMP.

Bryce Edwards, NZPD Editor (bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz)

Today’s content:

Act Party

Patrick Gower (TV3): The ACT Party look pretty much stuffed – blog

Andrea Vance (Stuff): It's not working, desperate Don

TVNZ: Brash: ‘We’re fed up pandering to Maori radicals’

Marika Hill (Dom Post): ACT ‘a party of cowards’ says Ansell

Marika Hill (Stuff): Act’s controversial marketing guru resigns

David Fisher/NZ Herald Staff: Act ad man quits after blasting ‘apartheid’

NBR: Ansell: Chch quakes ‘massively good luck’ for John Key

Audrey Young (NZH): Maori, Mana hit back over Act adverts

NZPA: Does PM support Act’s ‘racist’ campaign? – Greens