NZ POLITICS DAILY: The Rugby World Cup's election impact

Sport and politics aren’t supposed to mix according to some, but virtually everything in life interacts with politics in some way or another.

Hence the launch of the Rugby World Cup tournament today will have all kinds of impacts on domestic politics.

The question of how it will affect the election campaign is a contentious and hard to predict issue.

David Farrar has a go today in his Herald blog, World Cup's affect on the election. After a run through a couple of international comparative examples of the influence of sporting success on a nation’s voting behaviour, Farrar seems to conclude that there’s no obvious pattern to expect, but that a National Party that is already well ahead in the opinion polls will be well served by the reduced focus on politics for the next six weeks.

Previously, Tim Watkin has also blogged about this issue, suggesting such an affect is good for National, but poor for democracy – see: Political distraction. Interestingly, Labour candidate Jordan Carter sees things a bit differently, saying that he’s optimistic about it’s potential impact on Labour’s underdog status: ‘the tournament will wash away people's attention from politics for weeks and weeks, and afterwards -- no matter what the result -- there'll be an unusually sharp focus back to politics. If the underdog presents unexpectedly well, there'll be an upside for them’ - see: Effects of the #RWC on the election. And a couple of months ago, Anthony Hubbard wrote a very good article on all of this: Will the Rugby World Cup affect the election result?.

TVNZ’s business host Nadine Chalmers-Ross also ponders the impact of the RWC on the country, and worries that the IRB have over-priced the tickets making them ‘a luxury beyond the reach of many’ – see: Cautious RWC excitement.

And finally, Helen Tatham has polled general practitioners for the NZ Doctor publication, about what impacts doctors expect from the RWC – see: Depression not expected unless All Blacks lose cup. The political analysis of doctors is that, ‘46 per cent do not think the outcome of the Rugby World Cup will have an impact of the Government's election results while 25 per cent think it will’. But sticking to their own area of specialism, ‘45.2 per cent expect to see an increase in alcohol-related injuries and 7.3 per cent expect an increase in sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). The percentage of GPs expecting an increase in all three - depression, alcohol-related injuries and STDs - is 35.5.

Other conditions GPs expect to encounter as a result of the Rugby World Cup include forgotten medications, violence, indigestion, rape, assault, partner abuse, financial stress, cardiac problems, upper respiratory tract infection and gout’.

Making political projections is, of course, a ‘mug’s game’, but I largely agree with David Farrar’s analysis that the RWC is likely to help National retain it’s lead in the polls.

Also, the mere fact that the country is hosting the world tournament is likely to have a greater impact than whether the All Blacks win or lose in the semis or finals. New Zealanders love to be hosts and will revel in being ‘showcased to the world’. This will exacerbate the growing ‘little New Zealand’ nationalism – assuming that the hosting of the cup is a success – and this will mostly work in the favour of the most nationalist party: National. And much of the post-RWC electioneering will be affected by this likely rise in nationalism. Hence today, I’ve published a very simple and flippant blog entitled Blackout: The dark art of NZ politics.

Bryce Edwards, NZPD Editor (bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz)

Today’s content:

Rugby World Cup

David Farrar (NZH): World Cup's affect on the election

Jordan Carter (Just Left): Effects of the #RWC on the election

Nadine Chalmers-Ross (TVNZ): Cautious RWC excitement

Helen Tatham (NZ Doctor): Depression not expected unless All Blacks lose cup

Grant Robertson (Red Alert): Rugby World Cup- It has to be done

Adam Bennett (NZH): NZ crushed Argentina to win Rugby World Cup

Kate Chapman (Stuff): Gillard bemoans rugby ribbing from Key

Bryce Edwards (liberation): Blackout: The dark art of NZ politics

Election campaign