‘It’s the economy, stupid’. That’s the political catchphrase that Bill Clinton popularized in his successful 1992 presidential campaign. It’s probably being muttered regularly amongst Labour and National parliamentary staff and politicians. Economic issues have not been so important in an election year for a long time, and both Labour and National think that their own economic strategies and critiques of their opponents will win them the election. The difference is, however, that only National seem to be right about this.
Labour has an unmovable belief that the Government is weak on economic management and that the public just needs this to be pointed out to them. Regardless of the truth of the Government’s economic competency or vision, the public doesn’t seem to agree. Today’s Fairfax poll results merely confirm previous survey data showing that the public has much more confidence in National’s ability to govern in the recession than Labour’s. Today’s results show that 49% believe National has the best plan to fix the economy, while an incredibly low 17% pick Labour’s. What’s more, only about half of Labour’s own supporters have faith in their own party’s economic plans – see John Hartevelt’s
Financial trust gives National edge.
This is another reason Labour will end up a very distant second place in November – 85% of voters say that economic issues will be important in deciding their vote. So they’re viewing the electoral options through an economic prism. What they see might be very distorted, but the fact remains that Labour lacks credibility on economic matters, and that seems fairly entrenched. Of course, it could be that, as one union leader confidently says, ‘The people polled have no grip on reality at all’ – see:
Voters unconvinced by Labour's economy plan. But such Labour-friendly leftwingers are probably looking through their own prism of ‘Labour good; National bad’ which distorts their ability to see that National has won the public debate over the economy.
Labour and its cheerleaders (such as the bizarrely unreflective
John Pagani) are paying the electoral price for their assumptions that ‘we are right’ and that ‘voters must come around to seeing that we are right’. It reflects the arrogance that the public still perceives to embody a party that was thrown out of office three years ago and refuses to show any humbleness or signs of self-reflection. Labour partisans and hacks would do well to be reading all the newspaper editorials (without their rose-tinted glasses on) and face some reality. In particular, they could read the Dom Post’s
Labour needs to find a way to reconnect, the Press’
Grim time for Labour, and the Southland Times’
Pale in the polls. Furthermore, detail on what issues are important to voters can be found in the article,
Economy key to November election. But quite frankly, on many of the public’s highly valued issues – education, health, law and order – Labour is still struggling to differentiate itself from National. Merely asserting that Labour has a superior and different plan is not the same as actually having one. Inside Labour's strategy rooms in Parliament, they would do well to get rid of the arrogant assumptions of their own correctness, and remember: 'It's the voters, stupid'.
Today’s content:
Child welfare
Labour and opinion polls
Electoral deals
Flavell on suicide
Other
Bryce Edwards
Thu, 28 Jul 2011
