NZIER sees bumpy and subdued recovery
The economic recovery will be bumpy and subdued, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) said.Its latest Quarterly Predictions are for economic growth of 2.7% in calendar 2010 but a drop back to a 1.4% expansion in 2011."The recession
The economic recovery will be bumpy and subdued, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) said.
Its latest Quarterly Predictions are for economic growth of 2.7% in calendar 2010 but a drop back to a 1.4% expansion in 2011.
"The recession is over, but the recovery will be jagged. Some economic indicators – domestically and internationally – are ringing alarm bells," principal economist Shamubeel Eaqub said.
"Some housing indicators have suddenly plunged and internationally some confidence and housing figures have also shown renewed weakness."
He also cited uncertainty about regulation and tax as issues.
NZIER expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates in the September quarter.
It also expects the unemployment rate to peak around 7.5%, similar to the 7.3% rate in December 2009.
Wage restraint was likely to continue for another one or two years.
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