Oaths, ensigns and national identity

The news Prime Minister John Key doesn’t see New Zealand becoming a republic in his lifetime could leach some support away from his much-cherished new flag project.

Those who support a New Zealand republic have tended to split over the flag referendum.

Some see it as a step on the path to a republic. Others have argued it is precisely the opposite: a delaying tactic or some sort of consolation prize.

Mr Key's comments, coming after the republicanism issue was raised again in Australia, appear to confirm the latter group’s suspicions.

It is not in fact contradictory for Mr Key – or anyone else for that matter – to support a change in the flag but to think the current constitutional arrangements will do, at least for now.

In general, most New Zealanders appear to take the attitude that, to use a very old phrase, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

And there is, for now anyway, little that appears broken about the current constitutional arrangements for New Zealand.

Where, and how might this change? There is a kind of incipient nationalism in New Zealand, or at least greater national self-confidence, and Mr Key’s referendum on changing the flag is an attempt to capture some of that.

To capture – and perhaps channel some of that, in fact.

New Zealand's place in the world is a bubbling subterranean political issue at the moment.

It is why the Labour Party is seized – somewhat ham-fistedly it has to be said – the issue of national sovereignty in the TPP agreement.

It was an undercurrent in some of the security-related issues that have bubbled to the surface over the past two to three years. The feeling that New Zealand's security services are not, in fact, New Zealand's security services but instead operate as a kind of branch office of the US security services rankles with a lot of New Zealanders who may not necessarily be of a particularly radical disposition.

As New Zealand turns the corner into Waitangi week, issues of nationhood, national sovereignty, and national identity are going to be very much on people's minds.

It is about more than the design on a piece of cloth or even who we swear an oath of allegiance to.

• In a poll run this week on whether New Zealand should become a republic, 22% of participating NBR subscribers said it should, and as soon as possible, while a further 37% agreed but didn’t see any rush. A significant minority of 41% were entirely opposed to the idea.