Poll setback for Labour

The latest opinion poll shows support for Labour stalling, ending a run of strong rises since David Cunliffe took over as Labour leader.

The party is up 2% in the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, but National rises by almost the same amount. Labour's modest increase seems to have come at the expense of potential coalition partner the Greens rather than peeling votes off National.

The lastest Fairfax-Ipsos poll has National widening its lead over the Labour-Greens bloc.

The poll would allow National alone to form a standalone government, with 63 seats in a 124 seat Parliament.

Curiablog poll summary:

Party Support

National 50.2% (+1.9%)
Labour 33.6% (+2.0%)
Green 10.7% (-1.6%)
NZ First 2.3% (-0.5%)
Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
United Future 0.1% (nc)
ACT 0.1% (-0.1%)
Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
Conservative 0.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

National 63
Labour 42
Green 11
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana 1
NZ First 0
Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

Centre Right – National 63 + ACT1 + United Future 1 = 65/125 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
Centre Left – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 54/125 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
Centre – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,030 of whom 815 have a party preference

Undecideds: 21.9%

Dates: 19 October 2013 to 23 October 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

NBR staff
Mon, 28 Oct 2013

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Poll setback for Labour

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