Poll suggests National victory - but not a clear one
National will be re-elected tomorrow but with not enough votes to govern alone, the latest poll suggests.
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National will be re-elected tomorrow but with not enough votes to govern alone, the latest poll suggests.
Today's Roy Morgan poll has National with 49.5% (down 3.5%) of the party vote, well ahead of Labour on 23.5% (down 1%) and the Greens on 14.5% (up 1.5%). That result would see the Greens win between 10 and 15 seats, which, if it happened, would be the first time the party would have more than nine seats in Parliament.
The poll has good news for New Zealand First, with it attracting 6.5% of the party vote (up 3.5%), which would see the return of Winston Peters to Parliament, with as many as six other MPs with him.
Support for the other minor parties shows Act with 1.5% (unchanged) and United Future with 0.5% (up 0.5%). That scenario would see neither party retain their seats in Parliament, while the Maori Party with 1% (down 2%) and Mana Party with 0.5% (down 0.5%) will contest the seven Maori seats.
The poll also showed the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan government confidence rating is down 18 points to 118.5 — with 49.5% (down 11%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is heading in the right direction, compared to 31% (up 7%) who think the opposite.
Roy Morgan research executive chairman Gary Morgan said when considering the latest poll results it should be remembered that at the 2008 New Zealand election the final NZ Roy Morgan Poll overestimated the Greens vote by 3.3% and underestimated the Maori Party by 1.4%.
“These figures may be repeated tomorrow as the Greens traditionally fail to man all the polling booths on election day which lowers their final vote.”
Colin Williscroft
Fri, 25 Nov 2011
Fri, 25 Nov 2011
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Poll suggests National victory - but not a clear one
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