Predicted support for major parties consistent

The prediction company has released its final election update, which also contains historical averages of support over that time.

Colin Williscroft
Fri, 25 Nov 2011

Support for Labour and National has been remarkably settled for the past year, according to iPredict.

The prediction company has released its final election update, which also contains historical averages of support over that time.

The latest data has National predicted to win 48% of the vote, which would see it claim 62 seats. Averaged out over one, three, six and 12 months, the numbers were never lower than 47% or higher than 48%.

Labour's numbers might not be as good – but they are as consistent. According to today's data, it was expected to win 28.1% of the vote, which would translate into 36 seats. Its historical averages over the same period that National was measured over revealed a low of 28.6% and a peak of 29.9%.

ipredict's other data showed that the biggest movers during the past 12 months were the Greens. Today they were predicted to win 11.7% of the vote, well up on the 9% forecast 12 months ago. If the prediction proves correct, the Greens will return with 15 MPs.

As for New Zealand First, Winston Peters and his team might have come from nowhere in the polls during the last few weeks, but he has maintained a steady stream of support from iPredict punters.

Today's data had the party predicted to win 4.5% of the vote. Its historical averages hover between 4.7% and 4.8%.

The heavily traded stock forecasting Mr Peters’ chance of returning to Parliament is up to 40% probability, from 39% yesterday.

National leader John Key remains overwhelmingly favoured to remain Prime Minister according to iPredict, but a seat-by-seat analysis continued to present a different picture, with both Epsom and Ohariu still highly marginal.

Colin Williscroft
Fri, 25 Nov 2011

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Predicted support for major parties consistent