Shearer takes over as favourite for Labour leadership

UPDATED FRIDAY: David Shearer has taken over from David Cunliffe as the top pick to be the Labour Party's next leader.

Following David Parker's withdrawal from the race and endorsement, Mr Shearer is now forecast, with 70% probability, to be the next Labour Party Leader.

With Labour now having a 57% probability of winning the next election, Mr Shearer is also favoured, with 50% probability, of being Prime Minister by January 1, 2015. 

UPDATE: David Parker has withdrawn from the Labour leadership race and thrown his support behind David Shearer.

Radio NZ reported Sunday papers were planning articles on Mr Parker's (previously reported) relationship with Barbara Ward, ex-partner of the stroke-hit Chris Knox.

Mr Parker released a neutral statement, saying, "I am formally withdrawing from the leadership race of the Labour Party. I remain committed to Labour ideals and will work hard to achieve them for New Zealanders and the country.

"There is growing support for a new face to lead the Labour Party. I intend to support David Shearer in his bid."

David Cunliffe is favourite to take over the Labour leadership from Phil Goff, according to iPredict.

Stocks on the prediction company's website show Mr Cunliffe is rated a 42% chance of being elected leader at a Labour caucus in just under a fortnight, with rivals David Parker and David Shearer back on 31%. Grant Robertson is only given a 5% chance of taking the job.

The contest between the four contenders for the Labour leadership has extra significance if iPredict's forecast for the 2014 election is accurate, with Labour given a 53% chance of winning it.

National’s party vote for 2014 is forecast to be just 43.5%, down from 45.5% yesterday and 48% on election night.

Mr Shearer has a 23% probability of being Prime Minister by 1 January 2015, according to iPredict, compared with Bill English (14%), Mr Cunliffe (13%) and Mr Parker (7%).

It's better news for Mr English in terms of his finance portfolio, with him iPredict punters giving him a 98% chance of retaining it.

Steven Joyce is given a 73% chance of keeping his associate finance portfolio, while he is also given a 65% chance of taking over Gerry Brownlie's job as Minister for Economic Development.

Judith Collins, the favourite to become Minister of Justice with a probability of 81%, is also firming as favourite for the commerce portfolio, although she is only given a 47% chance of achieving that.