Spectre of Labour-led monster coalition fading
Labour's chance of forming a government after the election has slipped despite National's falling poll ratings, according to iPredict.
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Labour’s chance of forming a government after the election has slipped despite National’s falling poll ratings, according to Victoria University’s online prediction market iPredict.
While Labour’s forecast party vote was steady in this week’s iPredict weekly snapshot (33.6%), its potential partners in a monster coalition didn’t fare so well.
The snapshot showed Mana Party leader Hone Harawira, who faces strong competition from Labour’s Kelvin Davis, could struggle to retain his seat at the general election.
The market indicated a 73% chance he would win the Te Tai Tokerau by-election (down from 80% last week) but only a 52% chance he would retain his seat in November at the general election.
According to the forecast party vote (1.5%), Mana would have two MPs if Mr Harawira won his seat.
Another potential coalition partner for Labour, New Zealand First, saw its forecast party vote drop to 4.6% (from 4.9% last week), taking it further below the crucial 5% threshold.
According to the forecast party vote and electorate results, National (43.5%, down from 44% last week) would have 55 seats in a 121-seat Parliament, enabling it to govern with the support of Act or a combination of United Future and the Maori Party (three seats each).
Even if New Zealand First reached the 5% threshold Labour (41 seats) would still require the support of the Greens (eight), New Zealand First (six), the Maori Party (three), United Future (two) and the Mana Party (two), to be able to form a government.
Meanwhile, expectations for unemployment, inflation and petrol prices all improved slightly compared to last week,
Niko Kloeten
Thu, 16 Jun 2011
Thu, 16 Jun 2011
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Spectre of Labour-led monster coalition fading
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