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The Budget in 60 seconds: 10 key points

Here is what you need to know for Budget 2016. With special feature audio. UPDATED with charts & videos.

Thu, 26 May 2016

1. No major surprises.

2. No tax cuts.

3. $700 million surplus forecast this year. Surplus forecast to reach $6.7 billion in fiscal 2020.

4. $1.6 billion in new spending in the year to June 2017

The new spending includes:

  • Over next four years, $2.2 billion in new spending for health (includes $124 million already announced to bolster Pharmac’s budget)

  • $761 million earmarked for direct various funds including the new Endeavour Fund, the Marsden Fund and a new Strategic Science Investment Fund.

  • $100 million to free up surplus Crown land for development in Auckland (a far more modest move than many had called for in Auckland, where the council says 900 new Aucklanders are arriving each week, or at least 50% more new houses can accommodate) and  $258 million allocated for social housing, the bulk of which will go to income-related rent subsidies

  • Over the next four years $355 million extra for Correction, $300 million more for police, $208 million more for Justice

  • $857 million for IRD to modernise its IT systems (flipside: 1000 jobs could be axed)

  • Maori Development Minister and Maori Party leader Te Ururoa Flavell has secured $17.8 million to get a new Maori land service up and running, a $40 million top-up for Whanau Ora community health programmes and $34.6 million for new Maori language initiatives.

5. Environment: Industry’s Emissions Trading Scheme subsidy axed, as widely anticipated; $25 a tonne carbon cap remains 

6. The government  now plans to restart contributions to the Super Fund in 2020 rather than 2021. That will not come cheap, NBR economics editor Rob Hosking says.Any meaningful contribution is going to have to be in the region of $3 billion a year, 

7. Tobacco tax to increase by 10% a year every year until 2020, pushing the price of a packet of cigarettes from around $20 today to $30 by 2020. Forecast to raise $425 million over four years.

8. The Treasury identifies "population growth" (read: "immigration") as the biggest contributor to GDP growth this year; Bill English brings forward $600 million of spending originally tagged for Budget 2017 to boost infrastructure under pressure from population growth

9. Budget 2016 projects net core Crown debt to peak at $68.3 billion in 2018 (lower than expected), before reducing to $62.3 billion in 2020 (faster than expected). As a percentage of GDP, it peaks at 25.6% in 2017 and retreats to about 21% in 2020.

10. A bullish Treasury is forecasting the economy will grow by 2.9% in the year ending June next year and to average 2.8% growth over the five years ended June 2020.

Source: Budget.govt.nz. The anticipated tax take for the 2016/17 financial year is $78.5 billion. See a breakdown here.

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The Budget in 60 seconds: 10 key points
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