The state-by-state vote: Trump's three hurdles to winning the White House

It’s morale-boosting to win the popular vote in a US election.

But at the end of the day (just ask Al Gore), the only thing that matters is who wins a majority (or 270+) of the 538 Electoral College votes, which are divided across states based on population (for example California is worth 55, sparsely-populated Idaho just 4).

Most states are either solidly Democrat (blue states) or Republican (red states; red because back in the day, the Republicans were the progressive party who fought the conservative Democrat south over slavery. The Democrats remained the conservative party until things were up-ended with the Depression but I digress.)

That leaves only a handful of battleground or “swing states” in play.

Although it’s been such an insane, surreal election cycle, it’s come down to a very conventional end-game. Donald Trump is fighting for the same set of battlegrounds as every recent Republican nominee.

The final poll-of-poll averages show Hillary Clinton ahead nationwide (RealClearPolitics gives her an average 3.2% lead). But, more to the point, she's also ahead in most of the swing states. 

There's a New York Times summary:

First hurdle
To have any chance at of getting to getting to the magic 270, Mr Trump will have to protect his right flank, Georgia (worth 16 Electoral College votes), North Carolina (15) Arizona (11) and Utah (6), all states won by the Republican Mitt Romney but which have looked wobbly at times during this campaign.

Mr Trump could easily fall at this first hurdle. Polls indicate it’s probable he’ll win Georgia, Arizona and (despite a strong challenge from wild-card candidate Evan McMullin), Utah. But Mrs Clinton has a narrow lead in North Carolina (where the polls close 1.30pm NZT and indicative exit survey results should follow soon after).

Second hurdle
Nevertheless, we’ll assume The Donald manages to prevail in North Carolina.

But that still leaves him well short of the magic 270 mark.

To win, he’ll also have to capture two swing states won by Barack Obama in 2012:  Ohio (18 ), Florida (the biggest battleground prize with is 29 Electoral College votes).

Ohio seems in his camp (though his slim lead has been shrinking). Florida has see-sawed but the most recent polls put it in Camp Clinton – albeit only narrowly.  

The polls close in Florida (which spans two time zones) at 1pm and 2pm NZT, depending on the part of the state.

Third hurdle
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume the Republican wins both Florida and Ohio. But that still leaves him at only 253.

To get to the 270 Electoral College votes and the White House there are two paths from here but both tricky.

One is to win Pennsylvania and its 20 Electoral College votes. On paper, the state has looked good for Mr Trump given its relatively high proportion of working class whites. But in reality, Mrs Clinton has held a consistent, above-the-margin-of-error lead in this swing state.

If he can’t win Pennsylvania, then he could cobble together Nevada (6), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4) plus 1 of Maine’s three electoral votes (tiny Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that don’t award their Electoral College votes on a winner-takes-all basis). The problem here: New Hampshire seems out of reach. Not hopelessly out of reach but it would be an upset. 

Donald Trump's only real hope is that the polls are in fact as wrong as he says.

That is not out of the question. Research this cycle of online vs telephone surveys reveals the so-called "Bradley" effect (voters being too sheepish they support a candidate) could be underplaying Mr Trump's support by a full 2%.

And then there's the unknown of the "Brexit effect" or people who don't usually vote deciding to join in. Early voting was up in many states but that's not necessarily an indicator of a "Brexit" like phenomenon. In crucial battlegrounds like Nevada and Florida, the Hispanic vote has been up sharply. That is not good news for Mr Trump. Overall, just over 46 million have cast an early vote, almost bang on the same as 2012.

It's the senate, stupid
Although Mrs Clinton has weathered the Comey FBI letter, the same can't be said for down-ballot candidates. A fortnight ago, the Democrats were favoured to take back the senate. Now polls give the Republicans a slightly better-than-even shot at maintaining the upper chamber.

And, regardless, the Republicans are almost certain to maintain a comfortable majority in the House of Representatives.

So: the most likely outcome is a historic first as the US gains a female president ... and the over-familiar situation of a hostile Congress that won't follow the White House agenda, and a president who vetoes legislation from Congress. In other words, same old gridlock.

On the off-chance Mr Trump pulls off an upset, he'll face a hostile Republican caucus in the Senate. A full third of elected Republican senators refused to support him.  And, under the US system of checks and balances, he would face a Supreme Court that may or may not be supportive of wall-building or religious or ethnic-based immigration tests. 

THE MONEY RACE: Clinton smashed previous records (Source: WaPo). 

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