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Trade balance improves

The country's trade balance continues to improve.The balance for February was a surplus of $321 million, up on December's $269 million.The rise was not as large as some economists expected – the average forecast was for a balance of $480 million.And

Rob Hosking
Fri, 26 Mar 2010

The country’s trade balance continues to improve.

The balance for February was a surplus of $321 million, up on December’s $269 million.

The rise was not as large as some economists expected – the average forecast was for a balance of $480 million.

And the annual balance is still a deficit – of $347 million.

The trend though is the significant thing. Exports continued to rise, month on month, and are 4.4% above what they were in October.

“The level of exports trend appears to have been rising in recent months, although more data points are required to confirm the direction,” said Statistics New Zealand chief statistician Geoff Bascand.

But the value of the exports is not up, but down, mostly due to price falls for products such as meat and edible offal, which recoded the largest decrease, and casein and caseinates.

By country of destination, exports to Australia continue to rise - by $49 Million (7%) for the month, driven mostly by crude oil and horses.

Imports also rose for the month, continuing a turnaround which began in September. Imports of intermediate goods, passenger cars, petrol and aviation fuel rose.

Imports of consumption goods continued to fall – as they have been doing for eight months in a row.

Other aspects of the trend which show a turnaround is the comparison with previous February months. The seasonal nature of New Zealand’s economy makes a comparison with similar periods illustrative and previous Februarys have seen much less favourable results.

The trade balance of $321 this month is worth 9.7% of the value of exports. The average February surplus is valued at 2.9% of exports.

On an annual basis, the trade deficit at the end of February is usually 11% of exports. This month the value is 0.9%.

Rob Hosking
Fri, 26 Mar 2010
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Trade balance improves
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