Trump, collapsing in polls, fires campaign manager

"Ding dong, the witch is dead!" Trump communications aide Michael Caputo tweeted this morning.

The staffer was celebrating Donald Trump's surprise move to fire campaign manager Corey Lewandowski amid a collapse in support.

Mr Caputo's snarky tweet was an appropriate way to mark Lewandowski's departure, given his tenure has been marked by poor discipline and infighting.

The Trump campaign also announced the departure in more formal terms with a brief statement from press secretary Hope Hicks: “The Donald J. Trump Campaign for President, which has set a historic record in the Republican primary having received almost 14 million votes, has today announced that Corey Lewandowski will no longer be working with the campaign. The campaign is grateful to Corey for his hard work and dedication and we wish him the best in the future.”

Pew Research says it is true Mr Trump did inspire record turn-out in the Republican Party's primary race as he drew independent or even working class Democrats into the fold (Hillary Clinton garnered just over 16 million votes in her efforts to win over the party faithful but did not set any records).

Infighting
The campaign managed by Mr Lewandowski defied expectations, surviving and thriving through controversy after controversy – including one involving Lewandowski himself after he was briefly charged with battery after allegedly rough-handling a female reporter.

But recently, the Trump train has been going off the rails.

One narrative is that, although Mr Lewandowski had a genius for populist campaigning during the primary race, he has had problems pivoting toward the general election or moving toward the mainstream and encouraging Mr Trump to act more presidential.

But the larger picture is perhaps that Mr Trump has had problems controlling his crew. One report says Mr Lewandowski and Ms Hicks got in a screaming match. Others describe a power struggle between the divisive Lewandowski and the more corporate and conservative Paul Manafort, who was brought on as chief strategist in March. Accounts of a conference call in which Mr Trump trashes his own staff over conflicting instructions have also painted a picture of a campaign in disarray. 

Amid all this – or perhaps because of it – Mr Trump has yet to run a single general election ad, nor has a single Super PAC (political action committee) run an ad in his support (Mrs Clinton, who is expected to become the first candidate to spend $US1 billion on a presidential campaign, has 10 PACs lined up, PACs being essential to skirt donation and direct spending limits. In May she raised $43 million All up her campaign and supporting PACs have raised $289 million).

For all the questions over whether Mr Trump has much cash on hand (he raised a tiny $US1.3 million last month as establishment donors shunned him and his liquid wealth seems surprisingly limited), it's debatable whether the presumptive nominee needs the Republican Party establishment to fill the spending gap. After all, social and mainstream media gives him a mountain of free publicity.

But he does need the party's organisational apparatus in the swing states that will decide the election.

But Trump seems to be alienating the establishment rather than getting close to it. His feud with Paul Ryan (the highest ranking elected Republican) appears to be having a corrosive effect on his campaign.

With endorsements like this, who need enemies?
Although Mr Ryan has officially endorsed Mr Trump, he has also recently accused him of "textbook racism."

And, only yesterday, Mr Ryan refused to condemn a renewed attempt to block Trump's nomination at the party's convention in Cleveland next month by freeing delegates to vote how they like (the move has zero chance of success but it does not bode well for the convention that Mr Ryan – who will chair the event – has declined to stamp out such shenanigans).

Poll slump
As he crossed the magic 1237 delegate line to wrap up the Republican nomination in early May, Mr Trump surged past Hillary Clinton.

But post-Orlando polls have him falling behind. A Bloomberg poll that includes third-party candidate Gary Johnson has him 12 points behind; a poll of polls has him trailing by six points.

Worse (for Mr Trump), Mrs Clinton – who has been advertising on high-rotate – is increasing her lead in the big battleground states that play such a key role under the first-past-the-post Electoral College system used to decide the presidential race.

Mr Trump appeared crassly gleeful with his "Appreciate the congrats for being right on radical Islamic terrorism" tweet in the immediate wake of the shooting tragedy.

He later confused conservatives by partially backing Mrs Clinton's call for tighter gun controls. 

And the aforementioned infighting and disorganisation have not helped.

Why the move could backfire
It would be a mistake to write off Mr  Trump at this point. Time and time again he has defied expectations.

But he's often done so by following Mr Lewandowski's mantra to "Let Trump be Trump" and indulge in the kind of outrageous comments that have so enraged the beltway but delighted parts of a jaded electorate.

It would be ironic if Mr Manafort, having won his power struggle with Mr Lewandowski, now enforces his much ballyhooed "pivot" and a more presidential Trump loses his X-factor.