Volcano poses World Cup economic threat
Scientists say ash cloud linger for months, disrupting the plans of an expected 80,000 visitors.
Scientists say ash cloud linger for months, disrupting the plans of an expected 80,000 visitors.
Without a Word of a Lie is hearing the volcanic ash travel crisis may cast a pall on New Zealand's RWC long-awaited economic boost.
With only 78 days to go to kick-off, experts are cautiously warning there is an increasing threat air travel to New Zealand could remain erratic, disrupting the plans of an expected 80,000 visitors.
Scientific experts say eruptions at Chile’s Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcano could continue for months.
Industry leaders will be alarmed by the risk-averse policy of Qantas – a major RWC carrier - and other discount carriers, because most of the visitors will be from Australia.
The volcano spewed another huge ash cloud into the atmosphere overnight, leading to chaos in air travel in the southern hemisphere as airlines quarrelled over the danger the particles posed.
Air New Zealand chief Rob Fyfe told NZPA ash clouds from the eruption would continue to drift across the region – possibly for weeks or months to come.
RWC spin doctor Mike Jaspers said tournament organisers were keeping tabs on the violent ash discharges.
RWC was touted as one of the sole economic bright lights of 2011, with international tourists expected to bring in hundreds of millions of dollars.
Risks to World Cup real
A university vulcanologist, who preferred not to be named because the issue was sensitive and official comment on ash-related matters was being left to the Civil Aviation Authority, told Without a Word of a Lie the risks to RWC were "real."
The vulcanologist said the Chilean eruption was “very violent” and had led to very fine particles being discharged into the atmosphere which hung around longer than coarser particles.
He said the current ash clouds were in the troposphere, a lower altitude than the stratosphere, and would eventually return to earth.
“Is there a magic number as to how long the ash will hang in the atmosphere? That depends on the eruption, the size of the particle . I can’t give you any definite figures,” he said.
The key, however, was how long Puyehue-Cordon Caulle’s eruption kept ejecting fresh particles into the atmosphere.
“There is a chance that even if the current ash discharge stopped, it could continue erupting later. There isn’t much data as to how long this will last,” the vulcanologist said.
Peter Kreft, the chief forecaster for the Met Service, agreed Without a Word of Lie was right to identify the key question for RWC was how quickly Puyehue-Cordon Caulle would quieten down.
“How long will the eruptions continue? That’s what’s really the crucial factor here,” he said.
Last eruuption lasted two months
The last major eruption at Puyehue-Cordon Caulle in 1960 lasted for two months.
Victoria University geography professor Martha Savage said she didn’t expect the current eruption, which began on June 4, to continue until the start of RWC on September 9.
“I think it should be done by then, of course you can’t be sure,” she said.
“We’re aware of it, it’s on our radar screen, and we’re aware these things stick around. There’s till a heck of a lot of time to go,” Mr Jaspers said.
If the volcano disrupted tourists and teams travelling to New Zealand for RWC, it would mark a second cruel blow to the event by mother nature.
The February 22 Christchurch earthquake led to games at the city's AMI Stadium being rescheduled at other venues around the country.
CAA’s meteorological manager, Peter Lechner, said the current destructive cloud mass over New Zealand is the same one which circled the globe from the initial June 4 eruption.