Where has all the oil gone?

Sea life and the beaches along the Gulf of Mexico coastline of Louisiana have survived what for months we were told was the world’s biggest environmental disaster. But what of the media and political worlds?

Coverage and political reaction was hyped beyond all evidence, even resulting in a drop in the president’s popularity polling, so confirmation the spillage will have minimal long-term effect should be sobering to those who trade on disaster.

President Obama will bounce back but what of BP, whose CEO was the fallguy? Already the UK press is crying foul and descriptions of the region, before the spillage, have been unflattering. This, for example, from the Daily Telegraph

Long, long ago the state – and its people and its elected representatives – embraced oil and all its hazards. Development of the industry was rampant, corrupt, poorly regulated and carried out with little regard to the delicate marshlands that everyone was so worried about once the BP well burst open.

The thirst for oil, and the jobs and revenues it brought, led to the construction of 4000 offshore oil and gas platforms. Thousands of miles of pipeline and a complex of roads and canals contributed to the disappearance of more than 2000 square miles of Louisiana coastline over the past century. Teams assessing the damage caused by BP to the wetlands found 350 acres of oily marshes, but the state was already losing many times that amount every year.

Gillard’s gamble
Australians, they say, will bet on flies crawling up a wall. At Centrebet, the punters still favour Labor at $1.52 over $2.50 for the Coalition, so Julia Gillard is still looking good.

But increasingly, Labor’s policies are looking threadbare in a campaign dominated not by the economy but sex and side shows (though this is not surprising given Ms Gillard’s film star comparisons – Jodie Foster, Tilda Swinton – and Tony Abbott’s liking for lycra).

The fuss over immigration and population policy are curiously retro while even Rupert Murdoch – usually a man with forthright political opinions – has avoided direct comment though not, it seems, on the new American Idol judges.

A few efforts have been made to try to lift the level of debate. Columnist Michael Stutchbury, for one, has lamented Labor’s failure to tackle infrastructure bottlenecks in a piece New Zealanders should heed.

He warns the Labor machine that rolled Rudd, and some state premiers before him, is now trying to frustrate Labor-run Queensland’s privatisation programme.

Anna Bligh is trying to raise $A15 billion by selling off Queensland's coal freight rail business, the Port of Brisbane, a couple of motorways and state forests. Yet the political costs are high, fuelled by opposition from both left-wing unions and, defying even John Howard, the Liberal National opposition.

But the cake goes to NSW, as detailed out by Simon Benson's riveting account in Betrayal - The Underbelly of Australian Labor of how the unions, the state ALP machine and even the opposition brought down the Iemma government over its attempted 2008 electricity privatisation...

Incredibly, the faceless NSW "head office" boss who organised Iemma's execution, Karl Bitar, has been promoted to national ALP secretary. After turning on Rudd, he and his mentor, federal Labor minister Mark Arbib, may have now destroyed two Labor governments in two years.

Shrinking neighbour
While New Zealanders find it easy to make their mark on the world – and the country struggles to pay for this profile – Australians remain more insular and lacking a role that befits their size and status (a bit like Canada up until recently).

It is not just undeserved arrogance that makes Australia ignore New Zealand – the failure to make an impact on the wider world has been noted by leading historian Niall Ferguson (Ascent of Money) during his recent tour there. The Harvard professor told The Australian newspaper in an interview that Australia risked becoming an inconsequential player in the world economy during the coming "Chinese century," in which China would eclipse the US as the world's dominant economy.

He criticised Australia's political leaders for creating anxiety over the rising population, saying the country should be able to double its population in the next 50 years as long as it was accompanied by investment in infrastructure. If Australia's population grew slowly or went backward, the nation would be seen globally as little more than a "big New Zealand,” he said.

New Zealand’s latest global coup is for Sir Geoffrey Palmer to head the UN panel investigating the Israeli boarding of the Mavi Marmara, the Turkish ship that attempted to breach the Gaza blockade in May. I won’t repeat what I have already said, except to note the reasons Israel has accepted this particular inquiry and rejected all others.

It results from two months of strong diplomacy by UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon and the Obama administration. A report by the JTA news agency says the decision to cooperate on the probe was part of an agreement to mend relations with Turkey, which had threatened to sever diplomatic ties unless Israel acceded to an international probe or apologised for the nine Turks who died in the attack.

After the Goldstone report was issued a year ago with findings that tarnished Israel's international image, some in Israel argued that it had been a mistake to boycott the inquiry....In the Goldstone case, they note, the original mandate for the inquiry prejudged Israel as guilty and came from the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council, which has a record of singling out Israel for opprobrium while ignoring human rights violators around the world.

“You have to make a distinction between the Human Rights Council, which is partisan and has an anti-Israel obsession, and between the [UN] secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, who we hold in the highest esteem,” a senior Israeli official told JTA on condition of anonymity. “After ongoing discussion with the secretary-general, we are convinced that what he is proposing is credible and objective. I wouldn’t apply either of those two adjectives to the Human Rights Council, which is a travesty.”

Turkey has worried western diplomats with its pro-Islamic government wooing Iran – a trend Sir Geoffrey may be in a position to reverse, thus scoring a major diplomatic coup.

Compassion fatigue
World aid organisations, which are usually quick to race to the scene of any disaster with the media in tow, are strangely absent from the flooding in Pakistan. No wonder.

The contrast with the recent Haitian earthquake is instructive. Both countries have ineffective, corrupt governments that rate near zero in their concern for their people’s welfare. Both also have a level of poverty that has degraded the environment to the point where deforestration and heavy rains are a fatal combination. Already the UN estimates some 3.2 million people are homeless in Pakistan.

According to the Daily Telegraph, these people are attacking what aid trucks the government is sending, while journalists are praising the work of the Islamic terrorist organisations that have made Pakistan a pariah state.

Whether these reports should be given credibility – given that similar claims are made in Lebanon and elsewhere – is doubtful, but it remains true that governments that soft on terrorists are usually unable to help their people when they most need it.

I suspect the aid organisations know this and are giving Pakistan a wide berth, while, without widespread media attention, the likes of actor Sean Penn are doing sterling work in Haiti, according to this Vanity Fair piece.