Supply shock now embedded in expectations, not just pump price
ANALYSIS: Anna Breman faces a choice on May 27: risk recession to defend credibility or delay action and hope this shock fades before expectations change.
In last month's column, I argued that the Strait of Hormuz is now the most critical factor in New Zealand's monetary policy. This month, data confirm the geopolitical influence: the Reserve Bank's quarterly survey released on May 13 offers the first clear evidence that the supply shock is now
