NZ POLITICS DAILY: Twin disasters tear at govt - Rena and $12b deficit blowout

Two significant disasters are dominating New Zealand politics today.

The most visually and immediately newsworthy is the obviously the Rena oil spill disaster, which is suddenly looking much worse, and is rapidly taking on a much more party political character.

Cynics (or realists?) might see the unfolding disaster as a ready made recipe for Green Party success, coming as it is just weeks from a general election.

Certainly the Greens are making a lot of noise about the potential catastrophe – and you couldn’t expect anything else from an environmental party. See, for example some of the blogposts by Green MPs: Catherine Delahunty’s Rena Oil Spill Day Five, David Clendon’s A precautionary tale, and Gareth Hughes’ Joyce caught lying about Rena.

And for balance, it’s worth reading Whaleoil’s short jab, Is coastal shipping green?.

The Press newspaper also labels the Greens’ response as ‘political opportunism’ – see: Editorial – Cleanup all at sea.

But regardless, the issue seems likely to have an impact on the general election, and already iPredict is being reported as showing Labour And Greens Rise As Oil Leaks.

The other significant disaster has arrived in the form of the government opening its books to reveal the fiscal deficit for the 2010-11 year has ballooned out to $18.4 billion, which is a deterioration of $12 billion – see: Vernon Small’s Homeowners to pay extra $130 to help Govt.

Coming after the double credit rating downgrade as well as a just announced fall in the level of business confidence (Economic confidence falls, RWC blamed), this really puts the economy firmly at centre stage for the election campaign. Therefore today there’s plenty of important, interesting, insightful or influential items on the economy that are worth looking at, including: John Hartevelt’s Seismic blow to Govt accounts, TVNZ’s Goff: We already know economy's in bad shape, Susan Guthrie and Gareth Morgan’s Downgrade highlights need for repairs, and Nadine Chalmers-Ross’s Should we fear the downgrade?.

The NBR is always a useful bellwether for how business is viewing the state of the economy and their view of the government’s performance, and hence it is entirely instructive that the most recent edition of the NBR included strong criticism of National’s economic track record on almost every page – including lead story, entitled ‘government in denial over economy’. This story pointed out that ‘The Crown’s worth will fall 40% while its debt increases 100% over the next five years’.

Most of the NBR stories are not yet online, but the following ones are available (although paywalled): Matthew Hooton’s Downgrade shows National has been much too soft, Rob Hosking’s Paying credit where it is due, and Neville Bennett’s Credit agencies expose government spin. All of these items express concern about the Government’s handling of the economic slump – and Hosking and Bennett even raise the question of whether National was wise to reduce income taxes. Similarly, in the recent Sunday Star Times, Rod Oram had some worthy criticisms in his column entitled Muddling through, all right.

Other items of special interest today include: Anthony Hubbard’s Perks will remain in the murk, Chris Trotter’s Farmers immune from urban pain, John Armstrong’s Key's credibility takes a hit, and David Farrar’s The case for and against MMP.

Bryce Edwards, NZPD Editor (bryce.edwards@otago.ac.nz)

Today’s content:

Rena oil spill

Dom Post: Editorial - Distressingly slow response to stranding

Waikato Times: Editorial - Spill demands fast action

The Press: Editorial – Cleanup all at sea

Paul Harper (NZH): NZ's worst marine oil spills

Andrea Vance (Stuff): Rena salvage claimed 'fastest ever'

Stuff: Salvage of Rena could take years – MNZ

Stuff: Safety issues raised over Rena

Isaac Davison and Jamie Morton (NZH): Oil spill: Stricken ship's safety issues revealed