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Peters jumps in poll

PLUS: NZ First leader reiterates call for register for foreign buyers.

NBR staff
Thu, 18 Sep 2014

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has seen his personal popularity reach a three-year high in the final 3News-Reid Research poll ahead of Election Day.

The veteran politician is the preferred prime minister for 9.1% of those quizzed for the poll, up from  7.9% a week ago.

The new poll coincides with Mr Peters renewing his call for a register for foreign buyers of New Zealand property.

The NZ First leader says the policy is a bottom line.

3News-Reid Research's poll found 82% support for such a register.

However, speaking on Firstline this morning, National's Steven Joyce said it would be impractical. He added that "foreign looking" New Zealanders shouldn't be forced to produce a passport for, say, buying a house. Major purchases were already tracked by the Overseas Investment Office.

Mr Joyce added that Mr Peters always has a lot of bottom lines before an election but "alot of them disappear afterward."

Mr Peters has also pushed the spying issue over the past couple of days, insistiing Edward Snowden is right in his claim that there are two NSA bases in NZ.  However, the NZ First has declined to say how he knows, or where they are.

His new preferred PM rating puts Mr Peters just behind Labour leader David Cunliffe, whose personal popularity remains unchanged at 12.3%

The same survey taken just before the 2011 election had Peters on just 3.8%.

3News Political Editor, Patrick Gower says: "The personal popularity of Winston Peters is simply powering away, and is reflective of some serious movement in the party vote polling."

John Key has seen his popularity drop slightly from 45.3 to 44.1% in the survey, which was conducted between September 9-15.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent.

The full results, including details on how the parties stand, will be released tonight on 3News tonight and through the broadcaster's website.

With NZ First registering over 5% in most opinion polls, and the surveys historically underestimating the party's support, it seems odds-on it will again cross the MMP threshold.

NBR political editor Rob Hosking sees a possible scenario where NZ sits on the cross-benches after September 20, in the event of a National win, with Mr Peters looking to secure his legacy by hounding the government over the various "dirty politics" scandals.


Curiablog summary

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 09 to 15 September 2014

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 25.6% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.4% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 7.1% (+1.2%)
  • Conservative 4.9% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 3 = 12/124

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44.1% (-1.2%)
  • David Cunliffe 12.3% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 9.1% (+1.2%)

Preferred Coalition Partner for National

  • All voters – NZ First 54%, Conservatives 37%
  • National voters – NZ First 36%, Conservatives 54%

Kim Dotcom and hacking

  • 38% think Kim Dotcom was behind hacking of Whale Oil’s e-mails
  • 32% do not
  • 30% unsure
NBR staff
Thu, 18 Sep 2014
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Peters jumps in poll
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