Second poll sees post-Budget bounce for Nats

There was mixed poll news over the weekend. One survey showing National up and Labour and the Greens gaining, another the reverse.

A Fairfax-Ipsos poll released this morning reinforces the first trend, showing a post-Budget bounce in National support.

National: 49.1% (+4.5%)
Labour: 31.9% (-4.4%)
Green: 11.2% (+0.5%)
NZ First: 3.2% (+0.4%)

ACT, Mana, The Maori Party and UnitedFuture had  2.1% support between them.

The poll result would translate into 63 seats for National, or 65 for a coalition government if ACT and United Future retain their seats.

Under MMP, Parliament has a minimum 120 members, with more possible if small parties win seats creating over-hang. There are 121 MPs in the current Parliament.

An earlier 3News Reid Research poll (below) found 54% support for the Greens/Labour power policy, including 29% among National voters. 

But Labour leader David Shearer has failed to translate the policy win into party support.

The Fairfax-Ipsos poll report includes multiple comments from respondents critical of Mr Shearer, including ‘‘The lack of a leader is what’s destroying them" and ‘‘They could do better than David Shearer in charge – he is just not forceful enough.’’

National up in one poll, down in another

May 26: National has jumped in one poll and held steady in another in the first major surveys since a busy political period that has included  the Aaron Gilmore affair, the Greens/Labour power policy push, the Mighty River float and the Budget.

A OneNews Colmar Brunton poll shows National up 6 to 49%,Labour down 3% to 33% and the Greens down 4% to 9%.

A 3 News/Reid Research survey shows National down 2.3% to 47.3%, but still ahead of the combined left-wing block of Labour (up 2.9% to 33.1%) and the Greens (steady at 12%).

Labour and the Greens closing the gap on National. We've got the numbers on the reason why: the left-wing bloc's joint power prices policy.

The 3News/Reid Research poll would translate to 59 seats for National, meaning it would be reliant on ACT, United Future and/or The Maori Party to govern.

The poll also asked about the Labour/Greens power policy which was supported by 54% and opposed by 39% overall (and 29% of National voters).

Today also saw Labour and the Greens choose candidates for Ikaroa-Rahwiti, the late Parekura Horomia's North Island seat.

The Greens chose former Human Rights Commission educator Marama Davidson.

Labour selected Ngāti Kahungunu chief executive Meka Whaitiri ahead of a higher profile hopeful, TVNZ Q+A interviewer and head of Maori and Pacific programming Shane Taurima.

Curiablog poll summaries:

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Approx 1,000 respondents

Dates: approx 17 to 23 May 2013

Client: One News

Party Support

National 49.0% (+6.0%)
Labour 33.0% (-3.0%)
Green 9.0% (-4.0%)
ACT
Maori 1%
United Future 1%
Mana 1%
NZ First 4.0% (+1.0%)
Conservative 2%

Projected Seats

National 62
Labour 42
Green 11
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana 2
NZ First 0
Conservative 0
Total 122
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 2= 55/122 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

John Key 42% (+3.0%)
David Shearer 12% (-3.0%)

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3 News Reid Research Poll May 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Approx 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: approx 17 to 23 May 2013

Client: 3 News

Party Support

National 47.1% (-2.3%)
Labour 33.1% (+2.9%)
Green 12.0% (+0.5%)
ACT 0.2% (-0.3%)
Maori 2.2%  (+1.2%)
United Future
Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
NZ First 2.2% (-0.6%)
Conservative 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

National 59
Labour 41
Green 14
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana 1
NZ First 0
Total 121
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 41 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

Key 40.7% (+3.1%)
Shearer 10.5% (+0.5%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

John Key – 55.3% (-1.5%) well and 32.2% (+6.4%) poor = +23.1% net well (-7.9%)
David Shearer - 32.4% (-2.5%) well and 35.8% (-3.8%) poor = -3.4% net well (-6.3%)

Labour/Green power policy

Support 54%
Oppose 39%