Banks slips in Epsom

UPDATE Nov 17: As police gear up to raid Radio NZ and TVNZ over the teapot tape, iPredict punters have decided it's much less likely the recording will be publically aired before the election. There are also now fewer gambling that Act candidate John Banks will win Epsom.

Highlight's from the political marketplace's daily update:

• The probability John Banks will win Epsom has fallen to 58% (yesterday, Mr Banks' chances were rated as high as 79%. Last Friday morning, before the now infamous cup of tea with Prime Minister John Key, Mr Banks' odds hit as high as 94%)
• The probability the tea cup recording won't be released before Election Day is up to 79%, from 50% yesterday
• National's forecast vote-share slipped by 1.5% overnight, however the party would still be able to govern with the support of one of Act, the Maori Party or the Greens
• Winston Peters's chance of returning to Parliament has increased to 36% and NZ First is now on the edge of MMP's 5% threshold with a forecast party vote of 4.7% (though down slightly on the 4.9% hit early yesterday)

iPredict party vote standings, as of midday today (click to enlarge):

Backed by Victoria University, iPredict says it proved more accurate than 15 of the 19 polls carried out in the run-up to the 2008 election.

Its data is based on bets, or "contracts" taken by its members.

UPDATE Nov 16: NZ First's projected share of the party vote jumped from 4.6% to 4.9% in the iPredict political marketplace last night.

The party is now within a whisker of the 5% threshold for its leader Winston Peters to return to parliament.

The bump came after Mr Peters told 3News the so-called 'tea pot tape' includes a passage where Prime Minister John Key “insults elderly New Zealanders." The broadcaster has implied Mr Key's comments relate to NZ First supporters.

The rumour is grist to the mill for Mr Peters - at his best when fighting a real or imagined conspiracy - and should help him galvinise support among his core constituency.

According to one commentator, the NZ First leader is now "bursting with the joys of spring." 

National has ruled out working with NZ First. Labour has not.