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The individual who bet $130,000 on the All Blacks to lose the World Cup take note: Forsyth Barr has turned its analyst team to predicting the outcome of tournament, and it reckons New Zealand has the best odds.
Overall, the brokerage gives the All Blacks a 43% chance of winning, way ahead of England (16%), South Africa (13%), Australia (12%), Ireland (8%), France (5%), Wales (3%) and Everyone Else (1%).
That combined percentage comes from an analysis of five areas:
- Using World Rugby Rankings to determine the head-to-head probabilities of any particular team beating another (which NZ leads with 41%, followed by Ireland on 15% and Australia on 11%)
- Calculating head-to-head probabilities based on the 28-year history of clashes (NZ 54%, Australia 15%, England 14%)
- Past World Cup performances; (South Africa 25%, England 21%, NZ 21%, Australia 21%, France 8%)
- Odds offered by global bookmakers (NZ 42%, England 17%, South Africa 13%, Australia 9%, Ireland 9%); and, perhaps least scientifically (sorry guys):
- A Survey of Forsyth Barr Investment Advisors (NZ 63%, England 14%, Ireland 6%, South Africa 6%)
In 2011, the ForBarr crew correctly picked the result, or at least gave NZ (41%) the highest chance of winning. But as the FMA would note, past performance is not a guarantee of future success.
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ForBarr forecasts the World Cup result
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