Gillard gone before next election - iPredict
Users of the trading website think there is an 80% probability of a Liberal prime minister in Australia after the next federal election.
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ELECTIONS
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Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard will be replaced as leader of the Labor Party before the next federal election, according to iPredict traders.
Ms Gillard is given a 66% chance of being ousted as leader, but there is no clear consensus on her successor.
However, there are three men in the running: former PM Kevin Rudd with a 27%, employment and workplace relations minister Bill Shorten on 17% and defence Minister Stephen Smith with 16%.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott, however, appears safe in his post with an 83% probability he will still be leader on nomination day.
Labor is expected to win 37% of first preference votes and the Green Party 12%.
The Liberal Party is predicted to win 31%, the Liberal National Party of Queensland 10% and the Australian National Party 9%.
A Liberal/National coalition would deliver 52% of the vote, with Labor getting 48%.
Overall, iPredict traders think there is an 80% chance there will be a Liberal prime minister, with just an 18% probability of a Labor leader.
Traders also do not think it is clear when the election will be held, but there is a 31% probability it will be held the Q2 2013, a 27% chance it will be held in Q1, 20% in Q4 and 9% in Q3.
Caleb Allison
Tue, 12 Jun 2012
Tue, 12 Jun 2012
© All content copyright NBR. Do not reproduce in any form without permission, even if you have a paid subscription.
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Gillard gone before next election - iPredict
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