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Predicting the predictable
Hamish McNicol and Calida Stuart-Menteath
Fri, 31 Jan 2025
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Consumer confidence slips as economic reality bites: ANZ
Consumers are cautious and appear to be reluctant to buy a major household item, according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index.
The survey slipped 4 points to 96 in January, while inflation expectations were little changed at 3.9%.
The proportion of households thinking now was a good time to buy a major household item – the best retail indicator – dropped 15 points to -16.
Meanwhile, a net 23% expect to be better off this time next year, while perceptions about the economic outlook fell 3 points to -15%.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner and colleague Henry Russell said while consumers were more upbeat than six months ago, the economic reality was biting, and the economy was a slow ship to turn.
“We expect a 50bp cut from the RBNZ next month to put a little more wind in the sails,” they said.
Yesterday, ANZ’s business survey also declined. Confidence among firms fell 8 points to 54 in January, while expected ‘own activity’ eased 4 points to 46, both still at high levels.
Keeping it easy for bloodstock breeders to claim GST deductions
The Government is proposing to make changes to GST rules so bloodstock breeders could continue to individually claim GST deductions when they are involved in a joint venture. Racing Minister Winston Peters said the common practice among joint ventures, including bloodstock breeders, was to individually claim GST deductions in their own GST returns. But Inland Revenue had concluded the current rules did not allow this. To comply, bloodstock breeders would instead have to file GST returns for each horse separately every month or every two months. “The Government is proposing to take a pragmatic approach and avoid imposing compliance costs by allowing the current practice [to continue],” Peters said. A consultation document on the proposal would be published in the coming months on IRD’s website.
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