In a prolonged crisis to Christmas, GDP could be about $2.9b lower, with household consumption down $6.3b, it says.
Higher-for-longer inflation and sluggish economic growth could prove to be a particularly sour cocktail for the central bank.
The Government responds to weaker-than-expected GDP economic data, and outlines measures to help households amid Iran conflict.
The fragile economic recovery is now expected to take longer to mature as global conflict puts pressure on prices.
Economists reckon there was modest economic expansion at the end of 2025, as all eyes now turn to risks from the Iran war.
New Governor Anna Breman is getting out and speaking with businesses this month to gauge the health of the economy.
A December rate hike is likely, but an earlier move upwards can’t be ruled out, Forsyth Barr’s Zoe Wallis tells NBR.
It has to apply standardised approach to capital, while the big banks use internal models.
RBNZ’s rate track implies one hike by the end of the year is a likelihood.
Statistics NZ data today showed food prices rose 4.6% in the 12 months to January.